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Othello deals with love lost because of gullibility and jealousy.

All these examples suggest that to understand market behavior, especially in mania times, one needs to have a measure not just of gullibility, but of information viscosity, the tendency of important data items to stay confined in narrow circles, and not reach (or at least not be accepted) by the appropriate decision–makers.

All these examples suggest that to understand market behavior, especially in mania times, one needs to have a measure not just of gullibility, but of information viscosity, the tendency of important data items to stay confined in narrow circles, and not reach (or at least not be accepted) by the appropriate decision–makers.

The origins, determinants, and consequences of human mutations.

3. The telecom bubble and “Internet traffic doubling every 100 days”

3. The telecom bubble and “Internet traffic doubling every 100 days”

Still, innumeracy offers one of the most promising methods to approach the study of gullibility in a quantitative way. It appears (as will be shown later with numerous examples from the Internet bubble) that as a mania advances, innumeracy grows, and grows particularly dramatically among business and technology leaders, the people with PhDs and MBAs who are normally competent with basic arithmetic. Hence a quantitative measure of innumeracy, which ought to be feasible, since it involves explicit numbers in reference to specific objects or services, could become a key part of the gullibility index.

Innumeracy is especially dangerous in situations such as the telecom bubble, where the quantities under discussion are huge, with prefixes such as tera–, peta–, and exa–, and refer to photons and electrons, objects that are not very tangible. (That may be one reason the Internet bubble fooled people so much more than the Railway Mania of the 1840s, which dealt with far more tangible passenger transport.)

Human gullibility term paper - Team10

Discussions of the Internet bubble tend to concentrate on the dot–coms. They are usually held up as examples of extreme irrationality. Yet they were by some measures the most sober part of the Internet bubble, and were a great success. In retrospect, we can look back and say that WebVan and eToys were silly wastes of investor funds. However, they did not consume much funding. If we consider just the real investments of the dot–com boom, the money spent on writing software, buying servers, as well as the legal, marketing, and other expenses, the total appears to be well under US$20 billion dollars. Any single one of the (few) great success stories of that mania, namely Google, Yahoo!, eBay, and Amazon, created more value (from the perspective of today’s market valuations) than the sum total of all the misbegotten ventures. Thus from the standpoint of society as a whole, the dot–com frenzy was a great success. A potentially different picture emerges when one looks at the prices paid for dot–com shares at their IPOs or later. But that represents just a transfer of money from one class of investors to another, and not real economic activity. On the other hand, the real investments of the telecom bubble (and the associated more general information and communication technologies bubble) were far larger.

13. Human nature, positive aspects of the Madoff fraud, and the virtues of gullibility

Much more can be said on this topic, especially on the influence of monetary rewards (through bonuses, stock options, and the like) on the propensity to engage in “willing suspension of disbelief.” It has been observed that the investment analysts, the ones in the best position to notice the implausibilities and outright impossibilities in the investment stories peddled to the public, were “paid a lot not to notice.” Even seemingly disinterested participants often had much tied to the success of the bubble. For example, academic researchers had an interest in increasing the flow of research funding to their field, newspaper reporters had an interest in getting more coverage in their areas of specialization, and so on. But let us leave that aside for now.

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(1 reality, and the overall Human gullibility term paper; ..


Tragic Flaws Of Othello - Jealousy and Gullibility: ..

Note that had Blodget been more gullible, and believed the hype he was spreading, he would likely still be a star analyst on Wall Street. And had he been more clever, and just pretended to believe the hype, without putting down his contrary thoughts in an e–mail message, the outcome would likely have been equally positive for him. This and similar incidents have probably not gone unnoticed, and business and technology leaders now know that gullibility is an effective defense against claims of malfeasance. (Note that it is not clear whether any high–level managers will go to jail over the collapse of the real estate and finance bubble. There is such a bewildering array of players, the appraisers, mortgage originators, rating agencies, investment banks, etc. who were involved, and bear some part of the blame, that pinning responsibility on any one may be impossible.) Thus the growth that appears to be taking place may be partly a matter of selecting the most credulous, and partly from people learning to suspend their curiosity and skepticism.

for measuring gullibility and other aspects of human ..

No claim is made here that the encouragement of gullibility is the result of a conscious policy decision by any policy–makers, legislators, or any secret cabal. It more likely evolved through trial and error, in the complex adaptive process that has led to our modern laws, regulations, and institutions, and our entire institutional culture. How that operates can be illustrated by the career of Henry Blodget. During the Internet bubble, he gained prominence through an extravagant prediction of a giant jump in the price of Amazon shares that was fulfilled within a month. This, together with his gift of gab and photogenic presence, catapulted him to the top ranks of Wall Street analysts. After the dot–com crash, investigations unearthed e–mail messages Blodget had sent which demonstrated he had been convinced that many of the stocks he had been recommending to investors were garbage. This led to a US$4 million penalty, and being barred from the securities industry for life.

Human gullibility term paper College paper Writing Service

The institutions that have evolved to produce economic progress draw on various facets of human nature. The prospect of gain is certainly very important. But we should not neglect others. Altruism certainly plays some part. And so do gambling and entertainment, especially as our society’s priorities move from bread to circuses. This development does not appear to have been carefully planned out in advance by any one. However, there is evidence that some perceptive observers in the early Victorian times were aware of the important contributions of such factors to economic growth, and may have nudged development of laws and institutions so as to maximize their effectiveness.

Human gullibility term paper // College paper Help

The institutions that have evolved to produce economic progress draw on various facets of human nature. The prospect of gain is certainly very important. But we should not neglect others. Altruism certainly plays some part. And so do gambling and entertainment, especially as our society’s priorities move from bread to circuses. This development does not appear to have been carefully planned out in advance by any one. However, there is evidence that some perceptive observers in the early Victorian times were aware of the important contributions of such factors to economic growth, and may have nudged development of laws and institutions so as to maximize their effectiveness.

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No claim is made here that the encouragement of gullibility is the result of a conscious policy decision by any policy–makers, legislators, or any secret cabal. It more likely evolved through trial and error, in the complex adaptive process that has led to our modern laws, regulations, and institutions, and our entire institutional culture. How that operates can be illustrated by the career of Henry Blodget. During the Internet bubble, he gained prominence through an extravagant prediction of a giant jump in the price of Amazon shares that was fulfilled within a month. This, together with his gift of gab and photogenic presence, catapulted him to the top ranks of Wall Street analysts. After the dot–com crash, investigations unearthed e–mail messages Blodget had sent which demonstrated he had been convinced that many of the stocks he had been recommending to investors were garbage. This led to a US$4 million penalty, and being barred from the securities industry for life.

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