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The sixth stage of an ongoing research project studying the relationship between social security programs and labor force participation, this volume draws on the work of an eminent group of international economists to consider the extent to which differences in labor force participation across countries are determined by the provisions of disability insurance programs. Presented in an easily comparable way, their research covers 12 countries, including Canada, Japan, and the United States, and considers the requirements of disability insurance programs, as well as other pathways to retirement.

The papers in Volume 29 of illustrate the depth and breadth of taxation-related research by NBER research associates, both in terms of methodological approach and in terms of topics. In the first paper, former NBER President Martin Feldstein estimates how much revenue the federal government could raise by limiting tax expenditures in various ways, such as capping deductions and exclusions. The second paper, by George Bulman and Caroline Hoxby, makes use of a substantial expansion in the availability of education tax credits in 2009 to study whether tax credits have a significant causal effect on college attendance and related outcomes. In the third paper, Casey Mulligan discusses how the Affordable Care Act (ACA) introduces or expands taxes on income and on full-time employment. In the fourth paper, Bradley Heim, Ithai Lurie, and Kosali Simon focus on the "young adult" provision of the ACA that allows young adults to be covered by their parents' insurance policies. They find no meaningful effects of this provision on labor market outcomes. The fifth paper, by Louis Kaplow, identifies some of the key conceptual challenges to analyzing social insurance policies, such as Social Security, in a context in which shortsighted individuals fail to save adequately for retirement.

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For the class project you will be writing a paper investigating the effect ofalcohol consumption on labor market outcomes.

Substantively interesting also, as it shows how, when the onlyform of intermediation available is a standard loan contract, thebankruptcy provisions of that contract are related to welfare ina non-monotone way.

(c) For your data set run AR(4) with Deterministic Trend model. Comment on the regression results and conduct the relevant statistical tests of the regression coefficients. Indicate whether or not this model is “complete” and why this is so.

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This paper gives some informalevidence that this might be true, and offers a model in which this might have made monetary policy incapable of controlling inflation,despite retaining the ability to create recessions and, thereby, occasional pauses in inflation.

(e) Plot a histogram of the residuals (from SPSS) and carry out the relevant test for normality (Jarque-Bera test) in the error term

Higher interest rates cause thoutside financial wealth of private agents to grow faster in nominal terms, which ifiscalist models calls for higher inflation.

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Econometrics - Dartmouth College


Econometric Links Econometrics Journal

Simultaneous equation estimation is not limited to models of supply and demand. Numerous other applications exist such as the model of personal consumption expenditures, the impact of protectionist pressures on trade and short-term interest rate model. Simultaneous equation models have natural applications in the banking literature Due to the joint determination of risk and return and the transformation relationship between bank deposits and bank assets.

Christopher A. Sims - Princeton University

Itis the consideration of policy changes cast as deterministic,once-for-all changes in policy rule that can be accurate only asan approximation useful for a limited range of cases.

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